Officials report that Chinese peanut price is at a historical low level in the last 10 years. The oil crushing market was firm before the holiday season. However, the low peanut purchasing price in China, in combination with a weak exchange rate of the Chinese RMB to US Dollars, makes the price for the Chinese peanuts at an historical low level in the last 10 years.
Also, the quality of the new 2018 crop is stable and qualified as good. This makes China competitive origin now, mainly for Blanched Peanuts, compared to other origin’s like US or South America Origins. The Chinese factories have improved their processing facilities, such as adding more colour sorting and X-ray detectors,this will lead to minimum quality issues regarding foreign materials.
Improvements of Chinese peanuts have been reflected by the market and the end users are considering to choose Chinese peanuts for their orders in 2019. Keep in mind that China has made an agreement with the US recently. Both parties will not raise the import duty any more from Jan 2019. Though the trade war is not over yet, this temporary’Cease-fire’ could lead to a recovery of RMB against US Dollars.
As we begin the New Year, the weakness of the Chinese peanut market seems to be continuing,affecting all Origins, especially potential for U.S.shipments, and affecting not only edible peanuts, but also peanut oil. We could potentially see another reduction in plantings for the 2019 crop. China showed a production of 17 million metric tons this year, up from 16.36 MMT last year. The U.S. records 3.23 million metric tons.
The Argentina peanut industry is upset that the government has imposed an export tax for peanut and products that is hurting their market potential. One can couple that with peanut production reduction of 33%, the drop in international prices, high interest rates and other costs increases – all have made the peanut activity a problem.
Officials with the Argentina Peanut Chamber said, “We need to quickly change export taxes.” Presently, shelled peanuts are charged $115 per mton in export taxes, $158 per mton for peanut paste. Officials said that peanut paste already pays a 12% tariff to enter Europe.
Officials said that the increased prices have caused Argentina to lose their second strongest market, Russia, to Brazil. Officials said they just want a reduction in the export taxes to be competitive. One official said, “”With the return of the EXPORT TAXES and the reduction of the RETURNS TO EXPORTS, the peanut sector will lose 85 million Dollars”.
Luis Macario warned that BRAZIL is a growing threat to ARGENTINA due to the potential it has because of the amount of land available. “BRAZIL has been working for a long time and it is positioning itself in the WORLD EDIBLE PEANUT MARKET.”
They have the advantage that they arrive before than Argentina at the market, because they harvest between one and two months before ARGENTINA. Last year they had been more competitive and now with the export taxes, ARGENTINA is directly out of certain markets or it is forced to sell at a not profitable price.”
Meanwhile, the peanut crop is progressing well, slightly behind, due to lower temperatures. Acreage is reported down about 20%. Water requirements for the young crop are lower and rains have been variable in most areas. Peanuts have finally begun to grow and develop more intensively.
With high rejections, market price of groundnut has slipped below support price. Due to higher crop projection, groundnut prices in the market have dipped to as low as ₹3,375 a quintal against the MSP of ₹4,890.
Despite a Kharif peanut crop reduction of 15 to 16% vs. the previous year and a potential planting reduction of 10% for the Rabi crop, the Indian market continues to be weak due to slow demand. This seems to be due to several conditions, one being weak demand especially from China, and second sufficient supply from other origins such as old and new crop from Senegal, and new crop from Sudan and other African countries.
Lower Than Anticipated Peanut Yields in Gujarat Shrinks MY 2018/19 Pnt Production from 6 MMT to 5.1 MMT.
The weather in Brazil has been very good so far for new crop plantings which are still expected to be 5 to 10% higher vs. last year. Brazil would have 3 good quality crops in a row. BRAZIL, with growing crops, expanding exports, a good quality and prices cheaper than Argentina, Brazil has taken a big share of the export market.
The key for Brazil in the European Market will be the aflatoxin. If Brazil can have another good crop, then Argentina and the U.S. will have a lot of competition for their new 2019 crop. Volumes have increased from the crop 2018 from 575.000 to close 650.000 M/T. The firm prices paid since 2016 allowed growers to invest in harvesting technology, which increased the productivity and expanded the areas simultaneously. There is a new peanut frontier in the irrigated areas. Officials said this week that harvest is about to begin and the crop looks good.